Business Unit
Energy Projections and Technologies

Business Unit Leader: Felipe Andrés Toro

The business unit Energy Projections and Technologies performs short and long term energy forecasts for industry, services and household sectors taking into account techno-economic assessments of energy and material efficiency technology potentials and of innovative emerging energy technologies.

Detailed technically focused energy demand projections and technological foresight have received much interest in the last years to German and European energy utilities as well as banks, to national research administrations and several divisions of the European Commission. Uncertainties about new technological options and the choice and impact of policies increase due to energy security objectives, changing climate policy and regulation frameworks, and open international cooperation in climate mitigation policy.

This business unit has delivered projections for the Services Sector as well as for selected Industries such as Paper, Food and Plastic Industries with the application of diverse bottom up models taking into account energy efficiency potentials through cooperation with our partners. Furthermore, state of the art, techno-economic analysis and R&D opportunities for energy technologies such as alternative automotive fuels (biofuels, hydrogen, biomass, etc.) and mobility technologies, co-generation, solar thermal for industrial applications and heat pumps among others.

Scope of Performance

• Bottom up modeling of final energy demand by sectors and technologies (medium and long term)
• Identification and monitoring of energy efficiency potentials and technologies for final energy sectors.
• Identification and projection of drivers for energy and material demand.
• Identification of state of the art and emerging alternative fuels for transportation (biofuels and hydrogen) and wood fuel technologies.
• Identification of R&D opportunities for emerging energy technologies.

Ongoing Projects

• Scientific consulting for Luxembourg regarding the embodiment of funding instruments for renewable energies in the power and heat sector
• Heating and Cooling Strategies
• Creation of a feasibility study for a climate neutral Karlsruhe 2050
• National Climate Initiative - Accompanying Research 2009 - 2011
• Various energy demand projections for industry and services sector for energy utilities until 2013

Finished Projects

• Estimation of Co-Generation Potential for Nordrhein Westfalia (2009-2010)
• Scientific Advisory for Luxemburg in the Framework of the "Renewable Energy Action Plan" (2009-2010)
• Policy development for improving Renewable Energy Heat/Cooling penetration in European Member States – RES-H Policy. Data implementation and model runs. (2008-2010)
• Advisory on the Energy Efficiency Plan in Chile for the National Energy Commission – Chile (2009-2010)
• ALTERMOTIVE: Alternative fuels and alternative mobility technologies. Assessment of state of the art and technology improvement potentials until 2020 (2008 – 2011).
• Energy demand projections for the services sector at EU-27 level until 2035. (2008 - 2009)
• Estimation of biofuels imports and global biofuels potentials for the project: Beyond 2020: characterization of alternative renewable energy Scenarios for the EU (2008-2009)
• Investments for a Climate-friendly Germany – Invest2020. The impacts of the Messeberg Program (2007-2008).
• Heat demand potential and forecast for co-generation until 2035 in Germany. Focus on Paper, Food and Plastics Industries (2008).
• Wood potential, wood uses and forecast for the European Industry and Energy Markets until 2050 in the framework of the ADAM Project (Adaptation and Mitigation for Climate Change) (2007-2009).
• Techno-Economic characterizations of various renewable energy technologies (geothermal, wave and tide, biofuels) and review of major scenarios for a R&D strategy (2007-2008).
• BRISE: Recommendations for basic research needs and potentials for breakthroughs in energy technologies. Basic Research and Innovative Science for Energy (2007-2008)
• TRIAS: Techno-economic characterizations for biofuels and hydrogen in the framework of the sustainability impact assessment of strategies integrating transport, technology and energy scenarios (2006-2008).
• Consultancy Services for the Egyptian-German High Level Joint Committee on Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency and Environmental Protection. (2008)
• Electricity demand projections for Turkey until 2030 across industry, services and transport sectors (2006-2007).
• Energy demand projections for Luxemburg as part of its energy efficiency strategy (2007-2008).
• ENCOURAGED: Optimization of future 'energy corridors' between the EU and neighbouring countries (2006-2007).

Cooperation Partners

• Fraunhofer ISI
• TEP Zurich
• CEPE – ETH Zurich
• Chalmers University of Technology
• Energy Economics Group at Technical Vienna University
• Energy Research Center ECN The Netherlands
• ENI Corporate University
• Europe Economics London
• ECOFYS, The Netherlands
• Krakow Institute for Sustainable Energy – KISE Poland
• Postdam Climate Change Institute PIK
• TRT Transporte i Territorio, Italy
• UNESA Electricity Industry Association Spain